August 21, 2026: Since 2023, Ukrainian long-range drones have been carrying out attacks deep inside Russia. The initial attacks damaged or destroyed over 30 oil storage sites and refineries. Subsequent attacks damaged or destroyed two electrical power substations and a full-cycle metallurgical plant, Russia's largest, capable of producing high-quality metal for automotive and defense manufacturing. This attack cut off vital supplies to three plants that manufactured automobiles and trucks.

So far this year, Ukrainian drones have hit over a million targets. Over 90 percent of Ukrainian attacks on the Russian military are carried out using drones. That includes hundreds of drone strikes deep inside Russia. Targets include military, economic, and infrastructure sites. These strikes often involve explosions near major cities like Moscow and St. Petersburg, as well as near military facilities on Kronstadt Island. These targets were hit multiple times.

Russian leaders are dismayed at how effective the Ukrainians have been at destroying valuable Russian economic assets with long-range drone attacks. Not only do most of the Ukrainian drones manage to evade Russian air defense systems, but the attacks on petroleum storage sites usually result in spectacular, difficult-to-extinguish, and long-lasting fires. These fires are visible to many Russian civilians who no longer accept the government explanation that the fires were the result of accidents. Sometimes Russian oil storage sites are near factories that use the fuel in their operations. When factories go up in flames, and oil supplies are cut off, many Russians lose their jobs. The damage is even more widespread because the large oil losses have caused shortages for Russian consumers.

It got worse when Russian civilians found long waits at petrol stations, where you had to wait hours, or even days, to get refueled. Some station personnel demanded bribes to fill your tank. It was worse near the Ukrainian border, where drones were attacking bridges, barge canals and tunnels in an effort to block or disrupt efforts to supply Russian forces in Ukraine. Soldiers were phoning home to complain that they were often without food, water or ammunition because of what their officers described as transportation problems. Many Russian soldiers knew what was really happening as they tried to drive any kind of vehicle anywhere within 20 to 30 kilometers of the front line. Ukrainian drones seemed to be hunting for targets around the clock. While Russian drones sought the source of these attacks, they increasingly ran into Ukrainian drone interceptors. Behind this was the fact that Ukraine was producing millions more drones than Russia and many new drone types.

The drone offensive has also hit key targets in the Crimean Peninsula. In addition to road traffic, the drones are going after military targets while allowing fleeing civilians to drive back to Russia. Radars, air defense systems, electronic warfare equipment, ports, shipyards, barracks, munitions storage sites, airbases, and anything else the Russian military could use were being systematically destroyed. Ukrainian guerrillas operating in Crimea give detailed reports of the damage, from close personal inspection. The guerrillas are also preparing to support a Ukrainian ground invasion of Crimea and a campaign to make Crimea Ukrainian again after twelve years of Russian occupation. Other Russian-occupied portions in eastern Ukraine are also threatened, and some pro-Russian militia groups are negotiating to switch sides and escape post-war prosecution.

Russian leaders are distracted by economic and political problems at home, including the growing Russian dependence on Chinese economic and military support and the problems caused by the current Iran War. China gets most of its oil from Iran, and currently those shipments are blocked by the American Navy. Iran, China, and North Korea were the three major sources of military support, and all three are currently busy solving their own problems.

The Ukrainian attacks have significantly reduced oil production and refining in Russia. As a result, Russia banned oil exports until internal oil supplies returned to normal levels. Civilians complain about the lack of air defenses inside Russia. Before the war, air defense systems existed around major cities and key industrial targets. After the invasion, Russian forces encountered growing problems inside Ukraine and needed defenses against growing Ukrainian missile attacks. That meant Russia gradually withdrew S-300 and shorter-range air defense systems from its interior. The Ukrainians took advantage of this with the long-range drones they built and could use without NATO restrictions on targets deep inside Russia.

This means considerable Russian resources are now devoted to repairing, restoring, and maintaining petroleum storage and refining operations inside Russia. Less and less fuel is available for internal use and export. The Ukrainian attacks continue, much to the embarrassment of the Russian government and its claims of imminent victory in Ukraine.

It got worse when Russian civilians found long waits at petrol stations, where you had to wait hours, or even days, to get refueled. Some station personnel demanded bribes to fill your tank. It was worse near the Ukrainian border, where drones were attacking bridges, barge canals and tunnels in an effort to block or disrupt efforts to supply Russian forces in Ukraine. Soldiers were phoning home to complain that they were often without food, water or ammunition because of what their officers described as transportation problems. Many Russian soldiers knew what was really happening as they tried to drive any kind of vehicle anywhere within 20 to 30 kilometers of the front line. Ukrainian drones seemed to be hunting for targets around the clock. While Russian drones sought the source of these attacks, they increasingly ran into Ukrainian drone interceptors. Behind this was the fact that Ukraine was producing millions more drones than Russia and many new drone types.